Italy, resisting another coronavirus lockdown, shows peril of piecemeal restrictions

At the beginning of the pandemic, Italy was a lockdown pioneer — the first among democracies to control the virus by ordering life to a standstill. But as a second wave of the virus explodes, Italy and other countries across Europe have been reluctant to return to such a harsh, economy-sapping approach, and so they are now demonstrating the perils of an alternate strategy.

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The strategy is premised on the idea that more targeted, piecemeal measures can slow the infection rate while preserving jobs and businesses. It is also an acknowledgment that people, as their alarm has worn off and fatigue has set in, will be less tolerant of an order that again sends them back into their homes.

But experts say it’s hard to know which combination of targeted measures will be sufficient. Given the incubation period of the virus and the lag time between the onset of symptoms and when somebody might get tested, it can take 15 to 20 days to get a sense of whether restrictions are helping. By that time, the virus may have raced further out of control, with serious consequences for the health system.

“We are living in a delayed situation; when you do something today, you see the results 15 or 20 days later,” said Roberto Burioni, a professor of microbiology and virology at Vita-Salute San Raffaele University in Milan. “You’ll know in 15 days, and if it wasn’t enough, then you’ll take stricter measures. And they will come too late.”

This month alone, Italy has tightened rules four times, first requiring masks outdoors, then trimming hours for restaurants, then granting mayors the power to institute curfews in nightlife areas. On Sunday, Italy took an even more forceful step, ordering restaurants and bars to close by 6 p.m., shuttering cinemas and theaters  ...

That move amounted to a clampdown on nightlife, but many activities halted during the initial lockdown continue. Shops, schools and museums all remain open. ...